Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Palestinian Civil War?

When do skirmishes between rival Palestinian groups become a civil war?

When is that line crossed between an 'outbreak of violence' and true 'civil war'?

Not sure I know the answer where that line is to be drawn. But it seems Palestinians are well on their way to finding out.
Today's developments:
  • Prime Minister Haniyeh's - leader of Hamas' - home was shot at (presumably by Fatah gunmen.)
Meanwhile not much attention is being paid to this deteriorating situation. Not even the ISraelis and Israeli media seem to care too much about the serious risk of a civil war on their doorstep. Internationally, the Europeans are doing their darndest to screw up Kosovo, and twiddle their thumbs over Darfur, the US only wants to speak about Iraq (and occasionally Iran)... These are all legitimate intl security and humanitarian crises that deserve attention of world leaders.
But the disintegration of law and order in the Gaza Strip does too.
Let's hope it comes before it's too late. Increasingly Gaza is looking like Beirut of three decades ago, let's hope the comparison fails in the coming weeks.....

Intl community and Israel invested a great deal in building up a PAlestinian Authority, provinding autonomy to the Palestinians, and funding their economic well-being. Palestinians enjoyed the only truly democratic society in all of the ARab Middle East --- quite an achievement. All of this is now threatened, as is any prospect of movement towards peace.

ADD:
Ooh... I just saw that UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon express deep concern over the violence in Gaza. ... That should do the job.

Friday, June 8, 2007

Israel-Syria Peace Deal Imminent?

Well, "imminent" is probably a little too hopeful. But add up all the informal gestures, private talks, private shuttle diplomacy going on, and even public pronouncements by Israel and Syrian leadership ... and you've got to think that prospects for some genuine negotiations between these two warring countries is a distinct possibility.

Latest report says that Israeli government has convey to Damascus its willingness to "give up" the Golan Heights in an peace deal.

Whilst this may have been patently apparent to many outsides as necessary step for peace to prevail, do not discount the deep abiding attachment many Israelis have for the Golan Heights --- sometimes described as Israel's playground. It's natural beauty is phenomenal, and for a hiking-mad country like Israel, its terrain, springs, waterfalls, rivers and mountains have been the scene of millions of vacations over the years.

Lets also not forget the strategic value of the Heights.... they don't call them the "Heights" for nothing.

An eventual deal will probably include, in my view, three elements:
(1) Complete demilitarization of the Golan Heights. Early warning systems - of both countries - could stay. Some residual international force could also remain (the UN blue helmets have been keeping the peace on the Golan for decades.)

(2) Israel to relinquish any sovereign claim to the Golan, and Syrian sovereignty to be affirmed.

(3) Some arrangement - lease-back? Bi-National Park? - to allow Israelis to continue to enjoy travelling to the Golan, and perhaps even maintaining farmlands and wineries on it too.

In my view, peace needs to be cemented by people - former enemies - interacting, not just their leaders proclaiming peace is at hand. Therefore I'd suggest adding a fourth element - perhaps not seen as critical, but in my view just as important for the long-term

(4) Create bi-national economic/industrial cooperation zones on the Golan Heights. Allowing collaboration and partnership between Arabs and Jews and Druze, and Syrians and ISraelis on a variety of money-making ventures ---- the Peace Dividend.