Jim Wolfensohn's New Take on Changing World - "The Four Circles"

Former President of the World Bank - no, not Wolfowitz, the former former Pres - James Wolfensohn - respected economist, and global statesman - published an op-ed in the International Herald Tribune a few days ago - ahead of the G8 Summit being held in Germany this week.

He offers a new prism through which to view the global economy - the four circles of a changing world. Suggesting that North-South, East-West divisions are nowadays fatally anachronistic, he suggests there are four levels of development - each with their own concerns moving forward.

Why am I mentioning this on the Peace Post? Well, there's increasing research and discussion about the intersection between poverty and conflict, poverty and terrorism. And Wolfensohn sketches a useful analytical tool for us to use in that effort.
For example, he mentions:

"A third tier - a much larger number of economies, perhaps 50 in all - have experienced growth spurts, but also periods of decline or stagnation, especially once they hit middle income country status.

Spanning from Latin America to the Middle East, these economies have been forgotten by the G-8 leaders. They are neither poor enough to warrant special aid, nor sufficiently large and fast-growing to be major players in global growth. Yet more than a fifth of the people in the world live in these countries."

Now we begin to see how this model may be useful for policymaker --- too poor to benefit greatly from globalization, but too rich to warrant aid and attention....... The Middle East.... over a billion people....

"A fourth tier, a billion people, live in the poorest countries, which continue to stagnate or decline. These countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, gain little from globalization but are among the most vulnerable to its adverse effects, such as climate change and higher natural resource prices. The human tragedy engulfing this group is a huge concern and political challenge to the rest of us."

Wolfensohn ends his op-ed by appealing to the G8 for leadership - long-term, over the horizon stlyle leadership.... not merely on single issues but on forging a new global compact recognizing our interdependency.

Fingers crossed.